Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability
Title | Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability |
Publication Type | Manuscript |
Year of Publication | 2015 |
Authors | Pal, J. S. & Eltahir, E. A. B. |
Journal | Nature Climate Change |
Abstract | https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2833A human body may be able to adapt to extremes of dry-bulb temperature (commonly referred to as simply temperature) through perspiration and associated evaporative cooling provided that the wet-bulb temperature (a combined measure of temperature and humidity or degree of ‘mugginess’) remains below a threshold of 35 °C. (ref. 1). This threshold defines a limit of survivability for a fit human under well-ventilated outdoor conditions and is lower for most people. We project using an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations that extremes of wet-bulb temperature in the region around the Arabian Gulf are likely to approach and exceed this critical threshold under the business-as-usual scenario of future greenhouse gas concentrations. Our results expose a specific regional hotspot where climate change, in the absence of significant mitigation, is likely to severely impact human habitability in the future. |
URL | http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2833.html |
DOI | doi:10.1038/nclimate2833 |
nclimate2833.pdf
Relevant Projects:
Regional Climate Modeling over Semi-Arid Regions
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