The uncertainty in simulating the hydrological cycle of the Nile basin using different general circulation models (GCMs) imposes a challenge to accurately estimate the impacts climate change on it.
Envelope of the precipitation seasonal cycle from 18 GCMs, for the period (1960-2000),
over the Upper Blue Nile basin which supplies 60% of the Nile flow
Our aproach to study the impacts of climate change on the Nile includes:
- Enhancing our understanding of the hydroclimatology of the Nile basin and the transport mechanism of the moisture from the Indian Ocean to it and how could it be affected by the climate changes.
- Development of evaluation methods to measure the performance of different GCMs to simulate accurately the hydrological cycle of the basin.
- Predicting the future climate change impacts on the basin by driving an enhanced version of the regional climate model (Regcm3) with the GCMs.