El Niño and the Hydrology of Tropical Rivers

Distribution of the surface temperature anomalies in degrees Celsius for the Pacific Ocean during the 1997-1998 El Nino event

El Nino event El Niño is the most significant phenomenon that shapes the variability of climate in tropical regions at the interannual time scale. We are studying the relationship between Sea Surface Temperature in the Pacific Ocean, a measure of El Niño, and the flow in several large tropical rivers. The objective is to develop new methodologies for long-range forecasting of river flow, using El Niño forecasts, which can improve significantly the options for water resources management in the tropics. [Sponsored by the Sloan Foundation, and the Winslow Chair]

Publications on this topic:

  1. Eltahir, E. A. B., 1996. El Niño and the Natural Variability in the Flow of the Nile River, Water Resources Research, 32(1): 131-137.
  2. Amarasekera, K. N., R. F. Lee, E. R. Williams and E. A. B. Eltahir, 1997. ENSO and the Natural Variability in the Flow of Tropical Rivers, Journal of Hydrology, 200(1): 24-39.
  3. Eltahir, E. A. B. and G. Wang, 1999. Nilometers, El Niño and Climate Variability, Geophysical Research Letters, 26(4): 489-492.
  4. Wang, G. and E. A. B. Eltahir, 1999. Use of ENSO Information for Medium- and Long-range Forecasting of the Nile Floods, Journal of Climate, 12(6): 1726-1737.

Image: distribution of the surface temperature anomalies in degrees Celsius for the Pacific Ocean during the 1997-1998